A recent report in JAMA Network Open shows some very promising news- cigarette smoking is on the decline in young adults! A team of researchers aimed to determine if changes in smoking habits across sociodemographic groups would influence gaps in the smoking prevalence between high-prevalence and low-prevalence states.
The researchers collected data from 18 US Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Surveys (TUS-CPS) collected between 1992 and 2022. Across the 18 surveys, the research obtained data from 1,770,442 participants, of whom 56.3% identified as female. The majority of respondents (78%) identified as non-Hispanic White.
The researchers used 1990s smoking prevalence rates to group states into tertiles, with tertile one having the lowest smoking prevalence. Remarkably, each tertile displayed a decrease in smoking prevalence from 1992 to 1022. Further, between 2001 and 2022, each group of states experienced an approximately 13% decline in smoking prevalence. In 2022, smoking prevalence measured 7.4%, 10.0%, and 12.7% in each state grouped tertile.
Based on their data, the researchers also estimated smoking prevalence rates through 2035. The projections suggest further declines in each tertile with expected prevalence rates of 3.8%, 5.1%, and 6.6%, respectively.
Notably, individuals aged 18 to 24 have made a significant impact on the reduction in smoking prevalence gap between tertiles. Their efforts have led to an approximately 21% decrease in tertile three and an approximately 16% decrease in tertile one. This significant decrease in smoking prevalence among young adults is an encouraging sign for the future. However, because the declines in smoking prevalence among adults over age 50 remain more modest, the researchers do not predict a decline in smoking-related mortality in the near future.
The study projects that by 2035, California, Utah, Hawaii, and Colorado will all have smoking prevalence rates significantly below the recommended target of 5%.
The authors conclude that the stark differences in cigarette smoking prevalence between states have and will continue to dwindle over the next decade. Further, the authors surmise that this decline in the prevalence gap between states will owe primarily to a rapid decline in smoking prevalence in young adults in tertile three states.
The declining smoking prevalence among young adults across the country is an auspicious sign, presenting substantial hope for a future free from the harm of smoking. The potential for a smoke-free future should inspire us all to continue our efforts in reducing smoking prevalence!
Sources: JAMA Network Open