What impact can sea-level rise have on extreme floods in the future? This is what a recent study published in Coastal Futures hopes to address as a team of researchers will investigate long-term consequences of sea-level rise, specifically on Atoll nations. This study has the potential to help researchers, climate scientists, legislators, and the public better understand the long-term consequences of climate change and the steps that can be taken to mitigate them.
For the study, the researchers used a series of models to examine the extreme flooding event that took place on July 1, 2022 in the Maldives, which is comprised of 26 atolls and more than 1,000 coral islands, along with having an average elevation of 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) above sea level. The goal of the study was to ascertain the statistical likelihood of a similar extreme flooding event occurring based on sea-level rise model predictions. In the end, the researchers found that while this extreme flooding event was traditionally estimated to occur every 25 years, current sea-level rise could result in this type of event occurring once every few years.
Aftermath of the flooding event in the Maldives in 2022. (Credit: Gerd Masselink)
“Low-lying atoll island nations are clearly going to face increasing risk of coastal flooding as sea levels rise,” said Dr. Robert McCall, who is a coastal hazards expert at Deltares in the Netherlands and a co-author on the study. “Research such as this allows us to support governments and other decision-makers to plan for the future, by quantifying when, where, and by how much, the risk of flooding will increase.”
This study comes climate change continues to ravage the planet with more frequent and stronger weather events, including extreme flooding events as witnessed in the Maldives in 2022. Therefore, studies like this demonstrate how serious climate change needs to be taken and the steps needed to curb its effects in the future.
What new insight into sea-level rise will researchers make in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!
As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!
Sources: Coastal Futures, EurekAlert!