MAR 23, 2019 4:31 PM PDT

Climate change will make predicting summer rainfall more difficult

A new study from Stockholm University entitled "How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting" was recently published in Geophysical Research Letters. As the study’s name suggests, researchers Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori focused their work on better understanding the impacts of climate change on weather forecasts in the northern hemisphere spanning 3-10 days ahead.

Photo: New research suggests predicting summer rainfalls will become more difficult as global warming progresses. Photo: Pixabay

The research is relevant not only to the meteorological field, but for public safety and emergency planning. “Due to the enormous socioeconomic importance of accurate weather forecasts, it is essential to know whether climate change adaption policies also need to take into account potential changes in the difficulty and accuracy of weather forecasts,” writes Science Daily.

The researchers used climate and weather prediction models to determine which specific aspects of weather forecasting will become more difficult to predict as warming progresses. They found that while it will be easier to predict weather aspects such as temperature and pressure in a warmer world, it will be more difficult to make accurate precipitation forecasts. This “might strongly affect both disaster prevention and rainfall‐dependent industries such as the energy sector, all of which heavily rely on accurate precipitation forecasts,” the authors write.

The team also discovered that the decreased temperature differences between the North Pole and the equator explain the unpredictability of pressure fields, making weather predictions that much more difficult. The most difficult weather predictions will come in the form of weekly summer rainfall sums.

"Reliable weather forecasts are tremendously important for almost all of society, and summer flooding in the northern hemisphere especially is one of the great challenges as the climate is getting warmer," says lead author, Sebastian Scher. "It is very important that meteorological institutes around the world are given the opportunity to develop their tools and methods as conditions change."

The researchers plan to continue their study at Stockholm University with further investigations into better predicting heavy summer downpours in 24-48 hours. Such rainstorms often have significant impacts on flooding in certain regions.

Sources: Science DailyGeophysical Research Letters

About the Author
  • Kathryn is a curious world-traveller interested in the intersection between nature, culture, history, and people. She has worked for environmental education non-profits and is a Spanish/English interpreter.
You May Also Like
JUL 30, 2021
Plants & Animals
Massive fossil Bonebed Discovered by a Ranger in the Foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains California
JUL 30, 2021
Massive fossil Bonebed Discovered by a Ranger in the Foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains California
Paleontologists gain another piece of California's past
AUG 10, 2021
Plants & Animals
World Lion Day - Lions Under Threat
AUG 10, 2021
World Lion Day - Lions Under Threat
Lions are large charismatic predators that we love to adore. But human-lion conflicts are on the rise as we continue to ...
SEP 01, 2021
Earth & The Environment
An Introduction to Conservation Through Hunting
SEP 01, 2021
An Introduction to Conservation Through Hunting
Hunting and conservation are inextricably linked. Hunters are some of the most avid conservationists because they want t ...
SEP 16, 2021
Plants & Animals
Climate Change Is Already Bad for Corn Production. Weeds Make It Worse.
SEP 16, 2021
Climate Change Is Already Bad for Corn Production. Weeds Make It Worse.
Climate change is accelerating, causing more severe droughts, heat, and flooding. The United Nations Intergovernmental P ...
SEP 28, 2021
Earth & The Environment
How to Save the World's Coral Reefs? Global Reforestation
SEP 28, 2021
How to Save the World's Coral Reefs? Global Reforestation
With recent news of the world's coral supply standing at just 50% of what it was in the 1950s, any strategies for protec ...
OCT 12, 2021
Microbiology
Revealing the Efficient Enzymes of Methane-Producing Microbes
OCT 12, 2021
Revealing the Efficient Enzymes of Methane-Producing Microbes
The atmospheric levels of methane, which is known to be a potent greenhouse gas, have been steadily increasing for many ...
Loading Comments...