How will climate change occurring this century influence future centuries? This is what a recent study published in Nature Climate Change hopes to address as an international team of scientists investigated long-term sea-level rise based on current climate change trends. This study has the potential to help scientists, legislators, and the public better understand the long-term implications of climate change and the steps that can be taken to mitigate them.
For the study, the researchers used computer models to simulate how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next few decades could influence sea-level rise over the next few centuries. The goal of the study was to ascertain whether curbing GHGs in the next few decades would be enough to offset sea-level rise over the next few centuries. In the end, the researchers found that if GHG emissions stay at present levels between now and 2050, the planet will experience approximately 0.3 meters (0.98 feet) of sea-level rise by 2300, which becomes 0.8 meters (2.62 feet) by 2300. They emphasize that cutting GHG emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement could reduce sea-level rise by 0.6 meters (1.97 feet).
“Our work highlights the long-lasting legacy of today’s emissions and that adaptation planning must consider centuries ahead,” said Dr. Matthew Palmer, who is from the UK Met Office and a co-author on the study. “We also illustrate that some regions like the vulnerable Pacific islands will experience even higher sea-level rise than the global average. These regional and local changes have to be understood and resolved in much greater detail to better inform decision makers.”
This study comes as GHG emissions reached a new record high in 2023, with the United States, China, India, European Union, Russia, and Indonesia being the largest GHG contributors in 2024. Therefore, studies like this can demonstrate the steps that be taken to curb GHG emissions, ensuring a cleaner future for everyone.
What new insights into long-term sea-level rise will researchers make in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!
As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!
Sources: Nature Climate Change, EurekAlert!, United States Environmental Protection Agency
