JAN 24, 2019 9:53 PM PST

Algorithmic Model Predicts PEDV Outbreaks

WRITTEN BY: Nouran Amin

A proof-of-concept algorithmic model was recently developed by researchers at North Carolina State University that could help minimize porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreaks. The model utilized machine-learning techniques that could serve as a real-time prediction assessment of disease outbreaks in food animals. PEDV is a swine pathogen causing high mortality rates in pigs—affecting about 50 percent of breeding herds when transmitted through contaminated fecal matter.

Learn more about the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus PEDV:

The algorithmic model was created from data that was generated from weekly farm-level incidence reports including pig movement types, hog density, as well as environmental and weather factors including vegetation, wind speed, temperature and precipitation. After researchers studied a 10-kilometer radius around sow farms, they fed the algorithmic model information data regarding outbreaks, animal movements, the environmental characteristics of each “neighborhood” surrounding a sow farm. The data “fed” to the model was successful in predicting PEDV outbreaks with approximately 80 percent accuracy.

credit: ncsu.edug

The measured risk factor for predicting PEDV spread was found to be pig movement and environmental slope and vegetation

"This proof-of-concept model identified the PEDV spread bottleneck in North Carolina and allowed us to rank infection risk factors in order of importance," says Gustavo Machado, assistant professor of population health and pathobiology at NC State and corresponding author of the study. "As we get more data from other farm sites across the U.S., we expect the model's accuracy to increase. Our end goal is to have near real-time risk predictions so that farmers and veterinarians can provide preventative care to high-risk areas and make decisions based on data."

Source: North Carolina State University

About the Author
  • Nouran earned her BS and MS in Biology at IUPUI and currently shares her love of science by teaching. She enjoys writing on various topics as well including science & medicine, global health, and conservation biology. She hopes through her writing she can make science more engaging and communicable to the general public.
You May Also Like
MAR 03, 2020
Chemistry & Physics
MAR 03, 2020
All About Fluorocarbon Use in Aircraft and Auto Engines
Fluorocarbon rubber is a popular choice for use in aircraft and auto engines. It is a material with high resistance to c ...
MAR 30, 2020
Clinical & Molecular DX
MAR 30, 2020
Imaging Platform to Aid in Diagnosis of COVID-19
In the exponential growth of a rapidly spreading infectious disease, healthcare systems become overwhelmed, which can ha ...
APR 04, 2020
Clinical & Molecular DX
APR 04, 2020
AI Finds New Predictive Markers of Covid-19 Severity
Researchers and healthcare organizations are putting their heads together to consider how technology could ease the ever ...
APR 07, 2020
Clinical & Molecular DX
APR 07, 2020
Computers Predict Diabetes with 94.9 Percent Accuracy
"Currently we do not have sufficient methods for predicting which generally healthy individuals will develop diabet ...
APR 05, 2020
Space & Astronomy
APR 05, 2020
These Incredible Concepts Could Get Astronauts to Mars Sooner
The idea of putting humans on Mars for first-time exploration isn’t too far-fetched. Space agencies and large comm ...
APR 12, 2020
Space & Astronomy
APR 12, 2020
Three New Crew Members Arrive at the International Space Station
The International Space Station received three new crew members this past week following extensive pre-quarantine measur ...
Loading Comments...