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DEC 03, 2020 10:00 AM PST

Keynote Presentation: COVID-19 Projections for the United States

C.E. Credits: P.A.C.E. CE Florida CE
Speaker
  • Chief Strategy Officer, Population Health, University of Washington
    Biography

      Ali H. Mokdad, PhD, is Professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and Chief Strategy Officer for Population Health at the University of Washington. Prior to IHME, Dr. Mokdad worked at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He has published groundbreaking research on local-level disease trends and leading risk factors for poor health. His work on obesity is among the most highly cited in the field.


    Abstract

    Cases and deaths continue to increase steadily in most states. The pace of increase is faster than we expected, leading us to revise upward IHME forecast of deaths and cases into the future. Our forecast assumes that states will re-impose social distancing mandates as the daily death rate exceeds 8 per million. If they do not, the death toll could be much higher. Hospital systems in most states will be under severe stress during December and January even in our best scenario. IHME has substantially revised the infection-fatality rate (IFR) used in the model. We have now accumulated considerable empirical evidence that suggests that 1) the IFR has been declining since March/April due to improvements in the clinical management of patients, and 2) the IFR varies as a function of the level of obesity in a community. Even with the improvement in IFR, the seasonality of COVID-19 with the winter months will results in a rise of cases and deaths. Vaccines will improve the situation in 2021 but will not impact the situation in the coming 2 months. Increasing mask use to 95% can save many lives.

    Learning Objectives:

    1. What are the drivers of COVID-19 surge in the U.S.?

    2. What are the projected numbers of cases and deaths?

    3. What are the measures to contain the virus?


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