The global market value for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) treatment will rise from $6.9 billion in 2014 to $10.9 billion by 2021, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.5 percent, says Joshua Libberton, an analyst at business intelligence provider GBI Research, as reported in Drug Discovery & Development
. GBI’s latest report says that this increase will happen across the eight major markets of the US, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan, driven largely by the introduction of novel immune-checkpoint inhibitors, such as Opdivo and Keytruda, during the forecast period.
GBI believes that these new therapies will capture a large share of the second-line treatment space. In addition to strong clinical performances commanding premium pricing, the therapies are projected to add to the degree of segmentation in the NSCLC therapeutics market and offer further “complexity to the treatment algorithm.” The majority of new drugs are expected to target the second-line treatment of NSCLC in both squamous and non-squamous patient populations, making for a “crowded treatment algorithm for these patient populations.”
Eventually, because of their strong clinical performances, immunotherapies will make a bigger impact than other second-line market entrants, such as Custirsen and Rociletinib, according to Libberton. He adds that the NSCLC therapeutics market will also witness the launches of two first-line treatments for squamous cell patients during the forecast period, namely Necitumumab, which is expected to launch in early 2016, and Yervoy (ipilimumab) in 2017.
The squamous patient subset currently has very few choices in terms of first-line treatment options, thus making these new drugs extremely important for spearheading market growth and upgrading patient outlook. Inasmuch as generic chemotherapies will continue to be an important part of NSCLC treatment, with platinum-based regimens being critical in the first-line setting for all patients and docetaxel being an important therapy for second-line patients, their market share is expected to slowly shrink by 2021 as new premium, targeted therapies enter the marketplace.